Holding the Defensive Book as Iran Risks Build

This Week in Context

Week 18. 2026.

The ceasefire is broken in fact, if not on paper. Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, accusing the United States of breaches of trust during peace talks. Naval blockades and tanker seizures are back. Brent crude is back above $107 a barrel.

I am not adding to the book. I am not trimming. The book opened last week was built for exactly this week.

the book

27% VOO, 8% VWO, 13% GLD, 5% SLV, 7% BTC, 40% BIL. No moves. The setup is the message.

Macro Landscape

The Federal Reserve meets April 28 and 29. Markets are pricing a 99% probability of no change at the current 3.50% to 3.75% target. This is Jerome Powell's last meeting as chair. His term ends May 15. Kevin Warsh is in the wings.

Inflation is the issue, not growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% in the year through March, up from 2.4% in February per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oil is feeding through.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31% on April 24 per Treasury data. That keeps long bonds where I want them. Out of the book. The view is simple. Cash pays around 4%, investment-grade bonds yield around 5%, broad equity returns from here are best modeled near 6% from elevated valuations. Long duration sits in the middle and absorbs the most pain in a sticky-inflation world.

A hawkish hold pushes the dollar up. Gold gives back a touch. The bill sleeve keeps earning. A dovish surprise does the opposite. The hard-money sleeve runs further. Either path, the defensive setup holds up.

Sector Spotlight: Oil and the Inflation Pipe

Oil is not just a price. It is a transmission belt into core inflation. Brent moved from sub-$70 in early February to $107.58 this week. West Texas Intermediate sits near $96.

I do not own oil. The book picks the stagflation hedges first and the oil trade second. Gold and silver carry the inflation story. US large-cap stocks carry the earnings story. Bills carry the cash story.

The Big Tech earnings tape lands this week. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple report Tuesday through Thursday. Cloud and AI capital expenditure are the swing variables. A clean print pulls VOO higher. A messy print is a stress test. The 27% size is honest about that.

the risk

Iran agrees to a real, durable ceasefire. Oil drops fast. Gold gives back 5% to 10%. If the rest of the book holds up, that's fine. It is also why bills are 40%, not 20%.

Crypto Corner

Bitcoin is around $77,900. Up roughly 3% on the week.

That keeps it above the on-chain fair-value zone of $65,000 to $70,000 that I flagged last week.

I am not adding here. The reason for the small 7% sleeve has not changed. Sentiment was extreme fear, not euphoria, when I opened. Fair value is still below spot.

If price retraces to the $65,000 to $70,000 zone, that becomes the scale-in target. Not now.

No Ethereum. No alts. The book stays clean.

Looking Ahead

Three things for the week.

First: the Fed. A hawkish hold is the consensus. A dovish lean would be the surprise. Both are priced into the book.

Second: Big Tech earnings. If cloud and AI capital expenditure stay strong, VOO holds up. If guidance softens, expect a wider drawdown in the index.

Third: the strait. Every week the strait stays closed builds more inflation in the pipe. A real deal is the bullish surprise. I would let the book run, then reassess.

I check back next Monday.