Week 17 / 2026-04-20
Buying Gold and Core US Stocks, Keeping Cash in Bills.
Buying gold, US stocks, and short-term Treasury bills this week, with a defensive cash weight. Prices rose 3.3% in the past year. The Federal Reserve paused anyway. Global liquidity is also starting to drain, which is rarely kind to risk assets. 40% of the money sits in short-term bills that pay around 4% while I wait. The risk: if the US-Iran ceasefire holds and oil drops, gold gives back some of its run. I'll live with that.
This Week in Context
Week 17. 2026.
Prices keep rising. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% in the past year per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gasoline alone jumped 21% in a single month. The Federal Reserve paused anyway.
I am opening with a simple book. US stocks. Gold. A little silver. A little Bitcoin. The rest in cash that pays.
The week closed with a shaky US-Iran ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz reopened for a day. Oil dropped below $90 a barrel. Then it flared up again over the weekend.
the trade
Buy VOO, GLD, SLV, BTC. Park the rest in short-term Treasury bills.
Macro Landscape
The picture is messy. High prices. Slow growth. A central bank that won't move.
The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.25%.
Long bonds (the kind that take twenty or more years to mature) are priced like the market does not trust the government to get its house in order. I don't trust them either. No long bonds.
Short-term Treasury bills pay around 4%. That is where 40% of the money lives.
There is another reason the cash sleeve is large. Global liquidity (the total credit and money sloshing through markets) has started inflecting lower. The Howell framework that tracks this on a roughly five-year cycle has just rolled over. Draining liquidity is rarely kind to stocks or crypto.
So US stocks are sized a notch below core, emerging markets a notch below that, and the bill sleeve is larger than I would normally run.
If things calm down, I am wrong. Oil drops. Inflation eases. The Fed cuts. Liquidity re-expands. Long bonds and equities rally.
I accept that. One day of open shipping is not peace.
Sector Spotlight: Precious Metals
Gold is near record highs. Around $4,650 per ounce. Silver has more than doubled in a year.
Why is it running?
Central banks keep buying. The dollar keeps losing value. People want something governments cannot print.
I'm opening 13% in gold, through an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds bullion: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). And 5% in silver, through iShares Silver Trust (SLV).
Silver moves bigger than gold. So I size it smaller.
the risk
The ceasefire holds. Oil drops. The dollar rallies. Gold and silver fall 10% to 15% fast.
I'll live with that. The long story still wins.
Crypto Corner
Bitcoin (BTC) is around $75,000. Up from $70,000 last month.
I am putting 7% into it. Same reasons as gold. Something you cannot print. Limited supply.
The bear case is real. Price estimates based on network activity sit near $65,000. That is below today. When markets get scared, crypto falls harder than stocks.
No Ethereum. No other coins. Bitcoin is the cleanest play. Ormolu's job is to stay liquid.
Looking Ahead
The Federal Reserve meets April 28 to 29.
A tough pause pushes the dollar up. A surprise cut does the opposite.
The Iran ceasefire deadline lands the same week. An extension is good for stocks. Bad for gold. A breakdown is the opposite.
The plan is to stay balanced. I check back next week.
This Week in Detail
US listings are shown for reference. Non-US readers may only have access to local funds or ETCs with similar exposure, not identical holdings. This is editorial commentary, not personal investment advice, and broker eligibility, withholding tax, currency, and hedging treatment differ by domicile and account type.
27% in broad US stocks. Tech earnings are holding up. Profitable companies handle high prices better than bonds do. Sized a notch below core because global liquidity is inflecting lower, which is usually bad news for stocks.
Regional equivalents for VOO
- CSPX.L · iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Ireland, UCITS, USD)accumulating
- VUSA.L · Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Ireland, UCITS, USD)distributing
- VFV.TO · Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF (Canada, ETF, CAD, TSX)
- ZSP.TO · BMO S&P 500 Index ETF (Canada, ETF, CAD, TSX)
8% in emerging markets. Chipmakers in South Korea and Taiwan build the AI hardware the world needs. A weaker dollar helps them. Sized light because emerging markets are more sensitive to a draining global liquidity cycle.
Regional equivalents for VWO
- EIMI.L · iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF (Ireland, UCITS, USD)accumulating
- EIMI.L · iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF (Ireland, UCITS, USD)accumulating
- VEE.TO · Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Index ETF (Canada, ETF, CAD, TSX)
13% in gold. Government debt keeps growing. Central banks keep buying. Gold near $4,650 is already pricey, so size is a notch below max.
Regional equivalents for GLD
- SGLN.L · iShares Physical Gold ETC (Ireland, ETC, USD)ETC, not a UCITS fund; physically backed
- SGLN.L · iShares Physical Gold ETC (Ireland, ETC, USD)ETC, not a UCITS fund; physically backed
- CGL.TO · iShares Gold Bullion ETF (Canada, ETF, CAD, TSX)CAD-hedged; different domicile from GLD
- KILO.TO · Purpose Gold Bullion Fund (Canada, ETF, CAD, TSX)different domicile from GLD
5% in silver. Same reasons as gold but moves bigger. Sized smaller because it swings harder.
Regional equivalents for SLV
- SSLN.L · iShares Physical Silver ETC (Ireland, ETC, USD)ETC, not a UCITS fund; physically backed
- SSLN.L · iShares Physical Silver ETC (Ireland, ETC, USD)ETC, not a UCITS fund; physically backed
- SVR.TO · iShares Silver Bullion ETF (Canada, ETF, CAD, TSX)CAD-hedged
7% in Bitcoin. A hair above the starting 5%. Sentiment is scared while gold sentiment is greedy. Fair value near $65K tells me not to go bigger at $75K.
40% in short-term Treasury bills. Getting paid about 4% to wait. Dry powder for when a real entry point appears, and the right parking spot while global liquidity drains.
Regional equivalents for BIL
- IB01.L · iShares $ Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (Ireland, UCITS, USD)
- IB01.L · iShares $ Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (Ireland, UCITS, USD)
- CBIL.TO · Global X 0-3 Month T-Bill ETF (Canada, ETF, CAD, TSX)Canadian T-bills, not US Treasury (sovereign and currency exposure differ)
One email. Tuesday morning.
The week's allocation, and why.